by digby
Here's a shocker.
Researchers at Duke University have developed a mathematical model that shows how changes in North Carolina’s congressional voting districts could affect election outcomes.
Focusing on the last election, the researchers varied the state’s congressional districts to calculate what the outcome of the 2012 U.S. House of Representatives elections might have been had the state’s districts been drawn to emphasize nonpartisan boundaries. The team re-ran the election 100 times -- using the same votes as in 2012 and tweaking the voting map with only the legal requirements of a redistricting plan in mind. Not once did they get the split of Democratic and Republican seats seen in the actual election...
During the 2012 elections in North Carolina, Republicans took nine of the state’s 13 U.S. House seats although 51 percent of the two-party vote went to Democratic candidates.
[...]
After re-running the election 100 times, with a randomly drawn nonpartisan map each time, the average simulated election result was 7 or 8 U.S. House seats for the Democrats and 5 or 6 for Republicans. The maximum number of Republican seats that emerged from any of the simulations was eight. The actual outcome of the election -- four Democratic representatives and nine Republicans – did not occur in any of the simulations.
Here'a the punchline: the researchers say they hope this will bolster calls for redistricting reform. Yeah, that'll happen.
Still, it's another great illustration of how our "democracy" works in practice. I wonder how people explain this to kids?
"Sonny, the United States of America is the greatest democracy in the world. But just because a majority of people vote for a certain party or candidate, that doesn't mean they win. What determines who wins is who has the power to manipulate the system in their favor. Is this a great country or what?"
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